The report though downgraded 2018 growth expectations from 4.5% to 4.3%. 2019 growth projections are also whittled from 3.9% to 3.6%, with total new investment anticipated to reach $19 billion instead of the $23 billion earlier predicted.
The report added that the recent US dollar appreciation versus just about every other currency helped suppress this growth. Stress on the auto category stood out in feedback from GroupM’s worldwide network, as did the absence of any rebound in CPG investment with traditional media.
GroupM’s twice-yearly look at worldwide media investment trends is authored by Futures Director, Adam Smith. He said: “GroupM’s still strong but slightly fraying 2018 view ties to macro questions: tighter money, China’s slowing growth, and the potential for pricey trade wars. Real interest rates are edging up globally, but serious potential problems remain limited to a fragile five — Argentina, South Africa, Brazil, Turkey, and Venezuela.”
GroupM CEO Kelly Clark said, “Worldwide advertising investment grows slowly but marketing has never moved faster. Automation proliferates; cycles accelerate; talent grows more mobile. The gap between the cost of failure and the value of success grows wider. For advertisers, this underscores the importance of a worldview and trusted partners who can help their brands perform where the growth can be found.”
As per its forecast, ten countries will provide 83% of all 2019 growth.China will remain the largest contributor, but 2019 will be its sixth successive year with single-digit ad growth and mark its lowest growth rate yet recorded. Still, its USD 90 billion ad market is second only to the USA and has doubled since 2010. Despite rapid consumerization, China’s advertising intensity peaked at 0.78% of GDP in 2006 and has trended down to a prospective 0.67% in 2019.
The report said that those countries which stand close to India include Australia, Russia and Brazil.